Is Europe And The World Back To The Second Cold War?

Is Europe And The World Back To The Second Cold War?

Gorbachev may be appropriate, however, the “new Cold War” Is Quite different to the old one. At the conclusion of the second world war in 1945, many inside the Soviet and American authorities had a genuine sense that their wartime alliance must continue. They expected it would form the cornerstone of a peaceful and prosperous postwar world order divided into their respective spheres of influence.

The so also were the Soviet and American hardliners whispering in the ears of Stalin and Truman.

By 1947, the goodwill had disappeared. The hardliners were screaming as serious conflicts over Germany, Poland and Iran developed. From 1948, the Soviets and the West were in a standoff over Berlin. From the close of the decade, the Cold War had come to Asia, particularly Korea, under the threat of mutually assured destruction by atomic weapons.

Testing The Limits Of Both Spheres Of Influence

The question of exactly what went wrong after 1945 to spark the cold war has occupied and divided historians. A key issue was that none of the significant powers shared the same comprehension of where their spheres of influence started and ended.

For yet they drew the line at Stalin’s armed support for communist rebels at oil rich Iran at the beginning of 1946. This was Britain’s garden; Stalin had no place within it.

Though Stalin was examining the bounds of the world of influence and quickly withdrew his troops from Iran, the hardliners interpreted the Soviet Union’s behavior in Iran within a growing communist expansionism. They translated pretty much everything else the Soviets did thereafter in the exact same manner. This misinterpretation elicited an identical one from Moscow and Cold War was well under way.

Misinterpretations the European Union (EU) clearly no longer considers that Russia or anyone else has a legitimate sphere of influence whatsoever in which they may function to keep their strategic interests.

Today’s Flashpoint: Ukraine

Many from the EU have ceased thinking in such or even geopolitical conditions. Theirs is a post nation state universe of co operation among partners for which military battle is unthinkable.

After years of division and financial disaster, the pro EU protests in Kiev a year ago reinvigorated this vision one of EU idealists and expansionists in Brussels. For them, Ukraine is part of their united Europe and also the next logical next step from the European project.

This logic is fundamental to Understanding the EU worked so hard to help oust Viktor Yanukovych and “facilitate” a transition “authorities” that could accept their excellent promises of enormous money and even long term integration. Neither promise looks likely to be met.

It explains why many EU leaders failed to anticipate Russian president Vladimir Putin’s response to this “revolution”, which overthrew his ally Yanukovych and replaced him with a loose and unstable coalition of mostly anti Russian politicians.

The wider problem is that external EU elites within Europe, many different men and women live in the EU universe. Russia and Ukraine surely don’t reside there. This is slowly becoming apparent to many in the EU as frustration grows in Brussels with delays in improving endemic corruption in Ukraine and the financial burden it introduces.

In the same time, Russia’s involvement in the conflict in southern Ukraine continues. The precise nature and degree of this participation is still unclear, as is the matrix of representatives involved in this civil war.

Beyond a ramshackle Ukrainian national army and disparate rebel forces beneath competing commands, there are also mercenary armies under the control of local oligarchs and volunteers from the Russia and Ukraine. Some seem to be operating beyond organised military control structures. Russian special forces might also be involved. Civilians are stuck somewhere in the center and afflicted by all sides.

Viewing Putin As Stalin Reborn

The United States tactic of placing pressure on Putin to perform that in Ukraine and penalizing Russia with sanctions when he fails to react has never recognized this chaotic reality. That is even though many impartial observers on earth reporting this fact.

The US response Isn’t to recognise Russia’s sphere of influence beyond its own borders (not including Crimea), thus not recognising one whatsoever. This is an intense type of neo containment coverage unimaginable even to Cold War warriors. And it is being pursued (badly ) by a government that’s increasingly regarded as incompetent in handling foreign affairs.

Otherwise incompetent, then the Obama government is at least unwilling to understand how American foreign policy in its self designated “sphere of influence” from the Middle East over the last ten years has taught others how large powers should behave. Putin is an avid viewer.

The “new” cold war is not as severe a threat to global security and even humankind as the old one. Some of the players aren’t even fighting over the same things now as they were at the “old” war. But misinterpretations still abound and these were and remain at the origin of both wars. Where they will grow remains to be seen.

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